Hamilton, Greinke, Napoli...As each free agent left the market and as the Cubbies countered with yet another pitcher coming off Tommy John, I felt another little piece of my positivity die.
I went into this offseason with a lot of positivity (see earlier posts). No, I didn't think we'd be champions next year and no, I didn't think we'd be in on the Hamilton or Greinke sweepstakes, and you know what? I didn't want them anyway. I wasn't too impressed with any of this year's free agent crop. In fact, I entered the offseason hoping only for Anibal Sanchez, but not expecting him.
When the Cubs signed the Tommy John brothers known as Scott 1 and Scott 2, I believed our rotation complete. I began fantasizing about one of the Scotts working out good enough for a Maholm like prospect trade at the deadline. Dreams of Anibal Sanchez had officially died.
But when the Dodgers signed Greinke and the Royals traded for Shields, I began to feel a little down. Ok, more than a little down. I know we're not supposed to compete this year, but why should the Royals have a better pitching staff than us? Why?
Then the Angels signed Hamilton, and better yet, they only have to keep him for 5 years. LA fever was in full effect this morning and I was damn jealous.
But then came surprise word that the Cubbies were one of the final two teams bidding for Sanchez. At the time of this writing, the Cubs have a firm offer on the table and now we're all holding our collective Cubbies breath to see if the Tigers will match or beat it.
Chances are, the Tigers will beat it, or at least match it. I know this. 15 million a year is not bad for Sanchez. But it's the return of hope that I'm enjoying right now. It's knowing that if the right player comes along right now, even though we're not quite ready for our run, we'll try to get him.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Sunday, December 2, 2012
The signing of Fujikawa has the potential to be a huge game changer for the Cubs next year. The only problem is that they would need to keep Marmol for this to happen.
Imagine Russell and Camp sharing the 7th, Marmol holding fort in the 8th and Fujikawa closing. I think this would be a really solid bullpen. This would be a bullpen that I could trust, but if Marmol gets traded, it's significantly weakened.
Having a solid 8th inning guy is becoming more and more important to the point that to be a contender, a team needs to have a closer-caliber type guy, or even an actual closer, working setup. Problem is, I think it's a real long shot the Cubbies keep Marmol. If they have the opportunity to unload his salary and get a prospect in return, there's no way they won't jump at it.
But, on the positive note, Madson signing with the Angels possibly knocks out the team that already has shown interest in taking Marmol.
Imagine Russell and Camp sharing the 7th, Marmol holding fort in the 8th and Fujikawa closing. I think this would be a really solid bullpen. This would be a bullpen that I could trust, but if Marmol gets traded, it's significantly weakened.
Having a solid 8th inning guy is becoming more and more important to the point that to be a contender, a team needs to have a closer-caliber type guy, or even an actual closer, working setup. Problem is, I think it's a real long shot the Cubbies keep Marmol. If they have the opportunity to unload his salary and get a prospect in return, there's no way they won't jump at it.
But, on the positive note, Madson signing with the Angels possibly knocks out the team that already has shown interest in taking Marmol.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
2013 Preview
Young talent can and should be able to compete, and with valuable Major League experience under their belts this year, many of the young guys should be better in 2013.
So will the Cubs repeat as a 100 loss team or will they compete?
It depends on the direction they take in the off-season. Soriano's production will be hard to replace if they trade him for minor league talent. Ditto with Garza. These two players will be key to the Cubbies having at least a .500 season. So, for the sake of this post, I'll assume they keep these two.
1st Base: Rizzo is the future of the Cubs at 1st and a future All-Star. With him there and improving, we can win.
2nd Base: Very few are as good as Barney defensively, and if he can improve his batting average to the high .280's, I think we have a winner there too.
3rd Base: Valbuena and Vitters look to platoon if nothing is done here. Hopefully they don't intend on resigning Ian Stewart. 3rd base is definitely looking weak, but if either of those guys can improve a little and hold the fort, we'd have a solid #8 hitter.
SS: Castro's defense will improve, I'm not worried. Other than that, we have a winner here too.
Infield: So, with the exception of third base, we have seen (and I love) the Cubbies of the future. These are all players I could easily see taking the team to the playoffs in the next couple of years. But now if only the rest of the positions looked as good.
OF: Brett Jackson is the only "future of the Cubs" we got a look at this year, and I wasn't impressed. Hopefully with some Major League experience and some winter ball, he'll improve. A lot is riding on this guy. Soriano can be the veteran presence the team needs right now, leading the Cubs by example and providing a fearsome presence in the lineup. I'm still not sold on DeJesus and I'd rather see LaHair get more time in right field.
C: The jury's still out on our catchers and I want to see more of them before I form an opinion, but right now, they look to be solid #6 or #7 hitters.
P: I'm excited about Samardzija. He's our Strasburg or Medlin, but not as good. Hopefully he can get there. I'm a fan of Garza, but I really feel like he's a low #2/high #3 starter at best. Not someone I'd build a rotation around. There's nothing else to be excited about. Travis Wood looks to be a solid #5 starter, but who gets excited about a #5 starter. Chris Volstad is arbitration eligible, and I hope beyond all hope we don't give this guy a penny.
Bullpen: I'd like to keep Jeff Russell as our 7th inning guy and blow up the rest of the bullpen.
Off-season Hopes: If we open 2013 with the same batters, plus or minus a few bench guys, I'd be happy. I'm happy, because that meant we focused our off-season on pitching. Two new starters to go behind Samardzija and Garza and ahead of Wood. Two or three new bullpen additions also look good. Give me this team and I have hopes of contending. Maybe we don't make the playoffs just yet, but were up there contending for most of the year. The young guys are improving and learning to win. The front office is now ready to make a big play in the free agent market and sign the biggest pitcher on the market for the 2014 season. They also sign the biggest closer on the market for the 2014 season.
So will the Cubs repeat as a 100 loss team or will they compete?
It depends on the direction they take in the off-season. Soriano's production will be hard to replace if they trade him for minor league talent. Ditto with Garza. These two players will be key to the Cubbies having at least a .500 season. So, for the sake of this post, I'll assume they keep these two.
1st Base: Rizzo is the future of the Cubs at 1st and a future All-Star. With him there and improving, we can win.
2nd Base: Very few are as good as Barney defensively, and if he can improve his batting average to the high .280's, I think we have a winner there too.
3rd Base: Valbuena and Vitters look to platoon if nothing is done here. Hopefully they don't intend on resigning Ian Stewart. 3rd base is definitely looking weak, but if either of those guys can improve a little and hold the fort, we'd have a solid #8 hitter.
SS: Castro's defense will improve, I'm not worried. Other than that, we have a winner here too.
Infield: So, with the exception of third base, we have seen (and I love) the Cubbies of the future. These are all players I could easily see taking the team to the playoffs in the next couple of years. But now if only the rest of the positions looked as good.
OF: Brett Jackson is the only "future of the Cubs" we got a look at this year, and I wasn't impressed. Hopefully with some Major League experience and some winter ball, he'll improve. A lot is riding on this guy. Soriano can be the veteran presence the team needs right now, leading the Cubs by example and providing a fearsome presence in the lineup. I'm still not sold on DeJesus and I'd rather see LaHair get more time in right field.
C: The jury's still out on our catchers and I want to see more of them before I form an opinion, but right now, they look to be solid #6 or #7 hitters.
P: I'm excited about Samardzija. He's our Strasburg or Medlin, but not as good. Hopefully he can get there. I'm a fan of Garza, but I really feel like he's a low #2/high #3 starter at best. Not someone I'd build a rotation around. There's nothing else to be excited about. Travis Wood looks to be a solid #5 starter, but who gets excited about a #5 starter. Chris Volstad is arbitration eligible, and I hope beyond all hope we don't give this guy a penny.
Bullpen: I'd like to keep Jeff Russell as our 7th inning guy and blow up the rest of the bullpen.
Off-season Hopes: If we open 2013 with the same batters, plus or minus a few bench guys, I'd be happy. I'm happy, because that meant we focused our off-season on pitching. Two new starters to go behind Samardzija and Garza and ahead of Wood. Two or three new bullpen additions also look good. Give me this team and I have hopes of contending. Maybe we don't make the playoffs just yet, but were up there contending for most of the year. The young guys are improving and learning to win. The front office is now ready to make a big play in the free agent market and sign the biggest pitcher on the market for the 2014 season. They also sign the biggest closer on the market for the 2014 season.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Soriano Part 2
I previously stated back in July that we shouldn't trade Soriano if it meant absorbing most of his contract. I stated in my last post that I was happy the Cubs didn't trade him at the deadline because we would get more value for him in the offseason.
Right on both accounts.
Only 5 players rank ahead of him in home runs in the NL and only 3 are ahead of him in RBI in the NL. No one who's primary place is as a DH has better numbers.
Yes, I know it's just one season, but it's the whole season. This year Soriano has been less streaky, better defensively, and just overall a much improved player. I'm calling for everyone out there to let the past years go and judge Soriano on how he played for us this year.
But we're rebuilding, right? Like I said in an earlier post, I think having a veteran presence for the "kids" coming up is a good thing. But this leaves a big problem: only one outfield spot for their up-and-coming players. For this reason, I really believe DeJesus has to go. But I don't see that as likely. I think the Cubs will capitalize on Soriano's good season and deal him.
If they do, I'm fine with it, as long as they get good value for him. If we can get at least one highly regarded pitching prospect and not have to absorb ANY of his contract, I'd be fine with that.
It's time MLB teams wake up and stop undervaluing Soriano, stop acting like you'd be doing the Cubs a favor by taking him off our hands. If you want him, and you should, we're doing YOU a favor.
Right on both accounts.
Only 5 players rank ahead of him in home runs in the NL and only 3 are ahead of him in RBI in the NL. No one who's primary place is as a DH has better numbers.
Yes, I know it's just one season, but it's the whole season. This year Soriano has been less streaky, better defensively, and just overall a much improved player. I'm calling for everyone out there to let the past years go and judge Soriano on how he played for us this year.
But we're rebuilding, right? Like I said in an earlier post, I think having a veteran presence for the "kids" coming up is a good thing. But this leaves a big problem: only one outfield spot for their up-and-coming players. For this reason, I really believe DeJesus has to go. But I don't see that as likely. I think the Cubs will capitalize on Soriano's good season and deal him.
If they do, I'm fine with it, as long as they get good value for him. If we can get at least one highly regarded pitching prospect and not have to absorb ANY of his contract, I'd be fine with that.
It's time MLB teams wake up and stop undervaluing Soriano, stop acting like you'd be doing the Cubs a favor by taking him off our hands. If you want him, and you should, we're doing YOU a favor.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Trade Deadline Deals
This year's trade deadline deals brought in five prospects while saying good-bye to four of our starters. The Cubs Minor League Affiliates web page has three of the new prospects ranked in their top 20. They are ranked at #3, #6, and #17.
***Side Note***Recently, I emailed Josh Timmers of bleedcubbieblue.com who was kind enough to write back. He explained to me that the rankings on this sight are not very accurate and outdated (even though they recently added in the new prospects). He gave me his top 10 off the top of his head. He has Vizcaino at #5 (Affiliates sight has him at #3) and Villanueva at #7 (Affiliates sight has him at #6). I trust these rankings a lot more because they include Soler and Almora. The inclusion of these players pretty much proves that the Cubs Affiliates rankings are indeed outdated.
Back to the trade deadline deals. Were they good and am I happy?
The Good:
Pitchers, pitchers and more pitchers. 4 of 5 new additions were pitchers. Two new pitchers in out top 20 prospects. One new pitcher in our top 5. This is exciting and I'm happy. I'm particularly excited about the return we got from the Braves.
Soriano and Garza: I think we'll get a much better return for these two later, so I'm glad we didn't rush to a deal.
The Bad:
Soto: I know he was seriously uderperforming, but I still don't like the return we got for him.
DeJesus: I would've liked to see him traded, opening up a spot for the youngsters to get some Major League experience.
Overall Happiness:
Very. Including the draft and the signing of Soler, 25% of our top 20 prospects are new additions, making our farm system that much stronger. Going by Timmers' Top 10, and including the same players, 40% of our top 10 are new additions.
***Side Note***Timmers' Top 10 includes three Third Basemen. This should be interesting to watch. Josh Vitters is one of them, but he may no longer be the Third Baseman of the future.
***Side Note***Recently, I emailed Josh Timmers of bleedcubbieblue.com who was kind enough to write back. He explained to me that the rankings on this sight are not very accurate and outdated (even though they recently added in the new prospects). He gave me his top 10 off the top of his head. He has Vizcaino at #5 (Affiliates sight has him at #3) and Villanueva at #7 (Affiliates sight has him at #6). I trust these rankings a lot more because they include Soler and Almora. The inclusion of these players pretty much proves that the Cubs Affiliates rankings are indeed outdated.
Back to the trade deadline deals. Were they good and am I happy?
The Good:
Pitchers, pitchers and more pitchers. 4 of 5 new additions were pitchers. Two new pitchers in out top 20 prospects. One new pitcher in our top 5. This is exciting and I'm happy. I'm particularly excited about the return we got from the Braves.
Soriano and Garza: I think we'll get a much better return for these two later, so I'm glad we didn't rush to a deal.
The Bad:
Soto: I know he was seriously uderperforming, but I still don't like the return we got for him.
DeJesus: I would've liked to see him traded, opening up a spot for the youngsters to get some Major League experience.
Overall Happiness:
Very. Including the draft and the signing of Soler, 25% of our top 20 prospects are new additions, making our farm system that much stronger. Going by Timmers' Top 10, and including the same players, 40% of our top 10 are new additions.
***Side Note***Timmers' Top 10 includes three Third Basemen. This should be interesting to watch. Josh Vitters is one of them, but he may no longer be the Third Baseman of the future.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Soriano
The average salary for a designated hitter is around $6.8 million dollars. If you put Soriano's stats up against the players who primarily play DH, without researching the facts, I would venture to say he's probably the second or third best DH in baseball. This means he's worth more than the "average" salary for a DH. David Ortiz is the best DH and is being paid $14.575 million. Based on the facts, an argument could be made that Soriano, if traded to an American League team to play DH is worth somewhere around $10 million a year.
Soriano is owed $46 million for the remainder of his contract. Many articles are speculating that the Cubs will have to absorb $44 million to get a trade done, meaning AL teams are willing to pay him $1 million a year to be their DH, which is WELL below the average salary for that position. This also means that these teams rate him as the worst DH in baseball. The fact is, he's not the worst.
Many Cubs fans have (rightly so) compared his actual numbers to the money he's being paid. When they do this, the numbers don't add up at all. When they do this, they form a negative opinion of Soriano. Let's put that to the side for a second. If Soriano were being paid $1 million a year, would you absolutely love him? I think so.
Obviously, what I'm saying is that we should absolutely not trade Soriano if we have to absorb most of his contract.
But what about prospects? No, I'm not forgetting this. Let's now add in the possibility of prospects. The Cubs recently signed our #1 draft pick for #3.9 million dollars. If we absorb $44 million of Soriano's salary and get prospects in return, we should get 11 #1 draft picks. Do you think we will get ELEVEN #1 draft picks? No, I don't think we can. Now lets say that a Triple-A player, who's almost major league ready is worth more than a newly signed draft pick. Picking a number out of a hat, let's say, $10 million. If this is the case, we should get 4 Major League ready prospects and one #1 draft pick. Do you think we'll get that? Me neither.
The end result is that we will not get any amount of comparable value for Soriano if we trade him this year. Maybe things will be different next year, but for now we should keep him.
Another side fact: Soriano plays hard and has a good attitude. This kind of veteran is a good presence to have around as we continue to bring up the "kids" which in turn makes Soriano's value to the Cubs even higher.
I am aware of the fact that Soriano is being paid too much, but the contract is done and can't be changed. Paying him to play elsewhere is not the answer here. For now, if it were my money, keeping Soriano a Cub is the best direction we should take.
Soriano is owed $46 million for the remainder of his contract. Many articles are speculating that the Cubs will have to absorb $44 million to get a trade done, meaning AL teams are willing to pay him $1 million a year to be their DH, which is WELL below the average salary for that position. This also means that these teams rate him as the worst DH in baseball. The fact is, he's not the worst.
Many Cubs fans have (rightly so) compared his actual numbers to the money he's being paid. When they do this, the numbers don't add up at all. When they do this, they form a negative opinion of Soriano. Let's put that to the side for a second. If Soriano were being paid $1 million a year, would you absolutely love him? I think so.
Obviously, what I'm saying is that we should absolutely not trade Soriano if we have to absorb most of his contract.
But what about prospects? No, I'm not forgetting this. Let's now add in the possibility of prospects. The Cubs recently signed our #1 draft pick for #3.9 million dollars. If we absorb $44 million of Soriano's salary and get prospects in return, we should get 11 #1 draft picks. Do you think we will get ELEVEN #1 draft picks? No, I don't think we can. Now lets say that a Triple-A player, who's almost major league ready is worth more than a newly signed draft pick. Picking a number out of a hat, let's say, $10 million. If this is the case, we should get 4 Major League ready prospects and one #1 draft pick. Do you think we'll get that? Me neither.
The end result is that we will not get any amount of comparable value for Soriano if we trade him this year. Maybe things will be different next year, but for now we should keep him.
Another side fact: Soriano plays hard and has a good attitude. This kind of veteran is a good presence to have around as we continue to bring up the "kids" which in turn makes Soriano's value to the Cubs even higher.
I am aware of the fact that Soriano is being paid too much, but the contract is done and can't be changed. Paying him to play elsewhere is not the answer here. For now, if it were my money, keeping Soriano a Cub is the best direction we should take.
Friday, June 8, 2012
Rebuilding
Before the season began, we had Soriano locked up in Left Field, Byrd locked up in Center and an opening in Right. So we're rebuilding right? As part of the rebuilding process, the decision was made to bring in DeJesus for Right Field. And to bring him in, we locked up that position for two years. Yes, as a rebuilding team, we now had all three outfield positions locked up for the foreseeable future. It just didn't make any sense to me. If we're truly rebuilding, then why not leave that position open to give valuable major league experience to the young guys?
Well, since then, we were able to unload Byrd, finally opening up an outfield spot, but I'm still bothered by DeJesus. Why did we sign him for two years? Why? Obviously, any casual fan would come to the quick conclusion to move LaHair to Right Field and bring up Rizzo for First. But we can't do that because we have DeJesus locked and loaded and camping out in Right.
I've been told that maybe locking up DeJesus for two years might be a good strategy. If he returns to potential, then the Cubs have a good player who is valued higher than he's paid. Trade bait. Maybe the Cubs don't want to bring up Rizzo because of some sort of Major League Clock. I guess I understand these things, but I still don't buy it. Screw the clock and screw trade bait. Chicago is not Tampa Bay. We don't need to take four years to rebuild. We can do it by next year.
I say lets go all in with the rebuilding. Trade Dempster now. Trade Soriano and eat whatever amount of money we have to. Trade Soto. Get rid of DeJesus and Stewart. Hell, while we're at it, why not trade Garza as well. Lets get some almost major league ready players in return, and then let them all play. We're going to lose anyway, so why not do it in an exciting way.
Exciting? Yup. It's a lot more exciting seeing the future fail than the past. I'd rather watch the team that will be good next year struggle than watch this batch of aging veterans struggle. Yes, I know Stewart and DeJesus aren't exactly aging veterans, but they sure do look like it.
Well, since then, we were able to unload Byrd, finally opening up an outfield spot, but I'm still bothered by DeJesus. Why did we sign him for two years? Why? Obviously, any casual fan would come to the quick conclusion to move LaHair to Right Field and bring up Rizzo for First. But we can't do that because we have DeJesus locked and loaded and camping out in Right.
I've been told that maybe locking up DeJesus for two years might be a good strategy. If he returns to potential, then the Cubs have a good player who is valued higher than he's paid. Trade bait. Maybe the Cubs don't want to bring up Rizzo because of some sort of Major League Clock. I guess I understand these things, but I still don't buy it. Screw the clock and screw trade bait. Chicago is not Tampa Bay. We don't need to take four years to rebuild. We can do it by next year.
I say lets go all in with the rebuilding. Trade Dempster now. Trade Soriano and eat whatever amount of money we have to. Trade Soto. Get rid of DeJesus and Stewart. Hell, while we're at it, why not trade Garza as well. Lets get some almost major league ready players in return, and then let them all play. We're going to lose anyway, so why not do it in an exciting way.
Exciting? Yup. It's a lot more exciting seeing the future fail than the past. I'd rather watch the team that will be good next year struggle than watch this batch of aging veterans struggle. Yes, I know Stewart and DeJesus aren't exactly aging veterans, but they sure do look like it.
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