Thursday, December 20, 2012
7 Starters, 6 Roles
So obviously we didn't get Sanchez. Shame. But hey, we signed Villanueva and Jackson. We now have seven, yup, seven starting pitchers. Only five will start, one will be the long man and one will be left out. Who will that be? Baker and Garza's readiness may just answer that question kindly for everyone, but for the sake of argument, let's say they're all ready.
Jackson, Garza and Samardzija are in.
That leaves Baker, Feldman, Villanueva and Wood. Two will start, one will be the long man.
Villanueva looks to be a quality long man and occasional spot starter, so lets fill that role with him.
Wood is a lefty who performed good enough last year for the Cubs. Bonus points for these facts. Pencil him in as the #3 starter, breaking up all the righties.
That leaves just Baker and Feldman, and Baker has had a much higher upside in the past. He was the ace of the Twins staff just two years ago. He is just the kind of player the Cubs want and need. High potential upside, low contract, and if it all works out well, trade bait for prospects. You gotta give the final spot to him.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Sustained Success
The Cubs message boards are, for the most part, filled with a bunch of hate. Filled with a bunch of people who think Theo Epstein is stupid and Ricketts even stupider. I've even seen them called Dumb and Dumber. But here's the thing about message boards: 1. No matter what message board you read, they are always filled with much more hate than positivity. 2. Statistically speaking, they are probably young kids, most of which are 18 or younger.
These people don't really understand baseball. Baseball is a complex sport, that has constantly changed. Even if you do study the game and come to understand it, it will soon change and you're going to have to relearn it all over again. The steroid era redefined what superstars in their mid to late thirties can do. Even before we knew it was the steroid era, it was changing what we knew about baseball, which players need to be signed to long-term contracts, how to put together a winning team. Now we're in yet another new era. We're in the post-steroid, sabermetrics era. This new era redefines yet again, what players should get signed to long term contracts and which should be ignored. Yet still, many teams are locking up free agents until they're in their late thirties. Sabermetrics tells us this will be a mistake, but only time will truly tell us anything.
I'm on board with the concept of not signing high priced free agents to long term contracts that will put them in a Cubs uniform until they're 40. I completely agree that building a strong farm system, waiting until they develop, seeing which ones work out then, and only then, fill in the holes with free agents or trades. It's kind of a new concept, a concept that many teams don't use. So for a team to begin using this system, it will take them two to three years for it all to flesh out. That's two to three years of going into the season knowing your team will not compete and make a run for the playoffs. That is a hard pill to swallow as a fan, and even more so for a Cubs fan.
But here's why it should be swallowed: Sustained success. Since I've been a cubs fan, there have been a few runs to and in the playoffs and obviously no world series victories or even appearances. Furthermore, none of those teams had any sustained success, most went right back to a losing record the very next season. I, for one, am willing to buck-up and hold my breath for a couple of years for the chance at sustained success. For a chance to be able to cheer for my team through September year in and year out.
If you mention this on any of those message boards, you'll be laughed out of the room. They'll tell you you're "buying into the hype," or that "you're believing their propaganda." Except "you're believing their propaganda" will look more like "your beleving there propognda." Yes, there is nary a person on the message board who knows how to properly use the different variations of there, were or to (or even care to spell correctly). This is how you can tell they are under 18. This is the result of an education system that has been seriously underfunded for way too long. Every time you cut the budget a little further, one more child graduates high school not knowing the difference between then and than.
But the thing is, the Cubs sucked last year and they probably will suck again this year. So the "stupid" message board kids are right, at least for now. They're right when they say the "Cubs suck" or "Theo is an idiot and he's gonna fail to win again this year." So until all of the young prospects develop and our minor leagues are fully stocked, we won't be able to tell these kids "I told you so." And even then, they won't care anyway.
These people don't really understand baseball. Baseball is a complex sport, that has constantly changed. Even if you do study the game and come to understand it, it will soon change and you're going to have to relearn it all over again. The steroid era redefined what superstars in their mid to late thirties can do. Even before we knew it was the steroid era, it was changing what we knew about baseball, which players need to be signed to long-term contracts, how to put together a winning team. Now we're in yet another new era. We're in the post-steroid, sabermetrics era. This new era redefines yet again, what players should get signed to long term contracts and which should be ignored. Yet still, many teams are locking up free agents until they're in their late thirties. Sabermetrics tells us this will be a mistake, but only time will truly tell us anything.
I'm on board with the concept of not signing high priced free agents to long term contracts that will put them in a Cubs uniform until they're 40. I completely agree that building a strong farm system, waiting until they develop, seeing which ones work out then, and only then, fill in the holes with free agents or trades. It's kind of a new concept, a concept that many teams don't use. So for a team to begin using this system, it will take them two to three years for it all to flesh out. That's two to three years of going into the season knowing your team will not compete and make a run for the playoffs. That is a hard pill to swallow as a fan, and even more so for a Cubs fan.
But here's why it should be swallowed: Sustained success. Since I've been a cubs fan, there have been a few runs to and in the playoffs and obviously no world series victories or even appearances. Furthermore, none of those teams had any sustained success, most went right back to a losing record the very next season. I, for one, am willing to buck-up and hold my breath for a couple of years for the chance at sustained success. For a chance to be able to cheer for my team through September year in and year out.
If you mention this on any of those message boards, you'll be laughed out of the room. They'll tell you you're "buying into the hype," or that "you're believing their propaganda." Except "you're believing their propaganda" will look more like "your beleving there propognda." Yes, there is nary a person on the message board who knows how to properly use the different variations of there, were or to (or even care to spell correctly). This is how you can tell they are under 18. This is the result of an education system that has been seriously underfunded for way too long. Every time you cut the budget a little further, one more child graduates high school not knowing the difference between then and than.
But the thing is, the Cubs sucked last year and they probably will suck again this year. So the "stupid" message board kids are right, at least for now. They're right when they say the "Cubs suck" or "Theo is an idiot and he's gonna fail to win again this year." So until all of the young prospects develop and our minor leagues are fully stocked, we won't be able to tell these kids "I told you so." And even then, they won't care anyway.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
The Return of Hope
Hamilton, Greinke, Napoli...As each free agent left the market and as the Cubbies countered with yet another pitcher coming off Tommy John, I felt another little piece of my positivity die.
I went into this offseason with a lot of positivity (see earlier posts). No, I didn't think we'd be champions next year and no, I didn't think we'd be in on the Hamilton or Greinke sweepstakes, and you know what? I didn't want them anyway. I wasn't too impressed with any of this year's free agent crop. In fact, I entered the offseason hoping only for Anibal Sanchez, but not expecting him.
When the Cubs signed the Tommy John brothers known as Scott 1 and Scott 2, I believed our rotation complete. I began fantasizing about one of the Scotts working out good enough for a Maholm like prospect trade at the deadline. Dreams of Anibal Sanchez had officially died.
But when the Dodgers signed Greinke and the Royals traded for Shields, I began to feel a little down. Ok, more than a little down. I know we're not supposed to compete this year, but why should the Royals have a better pitching staff than us? Why?
Then the Angels signed Hamilton, and better yet, they only have to keep him for 5 years. LA fever was in full effect this morning and I was damn jealous.
But then came surprise word that the Cubbies were one of the final two teams bidding for Sanchez. At the time of this writing, the Cubs have a firm offer on the table and now we're all holding our collective Cubbies breath to see if the Tigers will match or beat it.
Chances are, the Tigers will beat it, or at least match it. I know this. 15 million a year is not bad for Sanchez. But it's the return of hope that I'm enjoying right now. It's knowing that if the right player comes along right now, even though we're not quite ready for our run, we'll try to get him.
I went into this offseason with a lot of positivity (see earlier posts). No, I didn't think we'd be champions next year and no, I didn't think we'd be in on the Hamilton or Greinke sweepstakes, and you know what? I didn't want them anyway. I wasn't too impressed with any of this year's free agent crop. In fact, I entered the offseason hoping only for Anibal Sanchez, but not expecting him.
When the Cubs signed the Tommy John brothers known as Scott 1 and Scott 2, I believed our rotation complete. I began fantasizing about one of the Scotts working out good enough for a Maholm like prospect trade at the deadline. Dreams of Anibal Sanchez had officially died.
But when the Dodgers signed Greinke and the Royals traded for Shields, I began to feel a little down. Ok, more than a little down. I know we're not supposed to compete this year, but why should the Royals have a better pitching staff than us? Why?
Then the Angels signed Hamilton, and better yet, they only have to keep him for 5 years. LA fever was in full effect this morning and I was damn jealous.
But then came surprise word that the Cubbies were one of the final two teams bidding for Sanchez. At the time of this writing, the Cubs have a firm offer on the table and now we're all holding our collective Cubbies breath to see if the Tigers will match or beat it.
Chances are, the Tigers will beat it, or at least match it. I know this. 15 million a year is not bad for Sanchez. But it's the return of hope that I'm enjoying right now. It's knowing that if the right player comes along right now, even though we're not quite ready for our run, we'll try to get him.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
The signing of Fujikawa has the potential to be a huge game changer for the Cubs next year. The only problem is that they would need to keep Marmol for this to happen.
Imagine Russell and Camp sharing the 7th, Marmol holding fort in the 8th and Fujikawa closing. I think this would be a really solid bullpen. This would be a bullpen that I could trust, but if Marmol gets traded, it's significantly weakened.
Having a solid 8th inning guy is becoming more and more important to the point that to be a contender, a team needs to have a closer-caliber type guy, or even an actual closer, working setup. Problem is, I think it's a real long shot the Cubbies keep Marmol. If they have the opportunity to unload his salary and get a prospect in return, there's no way they won't jump at it.
But, on the positive note, Madson signing with the Angels possibly knocks out the team that already has shown interest in taking Marmol.
Imagine Russell and Camp sharing the 7th, Marmol holding fort in the 8th and Fujikawa closing. I think this would be a really solid bullpen. This would be a bullpen that I could trust, but if Marmol gets traded, it's significantly weakened.
Having a solid 8th inning guy is becoming more and more important to the point that to be a contender, a team needs to have a closer-caliber type guy, or even an actual closer, working setup. Problem is, I think it's a real long shot the Cubbies keep Marmol. If they have the opportunity to unload his salary and get a prospect in return, there's no way they won't jump at it.
But, on the positive note, Madson signing with the Angels possibly knocks out the team that already has shown interest in taking Marmol.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
2013 Preview
Young talent can and should be able to compete, and with valuable Major League experience under their belts this year, many of the young guys should be better in 2013.
So will the Cubs repeat as a 100 loss team or will they compete?
It depends on the direction they take in the off-season. Soriano's production will be hard to replace if they trade him for minor league talent. Ditto with Garza. These two players will be key to the Cubbies having at least a .500 season. So, for the sake of this post, I'll assume they keep these two.
1st Base: Rizzo is the future of the Cubs at 1st and a future All-Star. With him there and improving, we can win.
2nd Base: Very few are as good as Barney defensively, and if he can improve his batting average to the high .280's, I think we have a winner there too.
3rd Base: Valbuena and Vitters look to platoon if nothing is done here. Hopefully they don't intend on resigning Ian Stewart. 3rd base is definitely looking weak, but if either of those guys can improve a little and hold the fort, we'd have a solid #8 hitter.
SS: Castro's defense will improve, I'm not worried. Other than that, we have a winner here too.
Infield: So, with the exception of third base, we have seen (and I love) the Cubbies of the future. These are all players I could easily see taking the team to the playoffs in the next couple of years. But now if only the rest of the positions looked as good.
OF: Brett Jackson is the only "future of the Cubs" we got a look at this year, and I wasn't impressed. Hopefully with some Major League experience and some winter ball, he'll improve. A lot is riding on this guy. Soriano can be the veteran presence the team needs right now, leading the Cubs by example and providing a fearsome presence in the lineup. I'm still not sold on DeJesus and I'd rather see LaHair get more time in right field.
C: The jury's still out on our catchers and I want to see more of them before I form an opinion, but right now, they look to be solid #6 or #7 hitters.
P: I'm excited about Samardzija. He's our Strasburg or Medlin, but not as good. Hopefully he can get there. I'm a fan of Garza, but I really feel like he's a low #2/high #3 starter at best. Not someone I'd build a rotation around. There's nothing else to be excited about. Travis Wood looks to be a solid #5 starter, but who gets excited about a #5 starter. Chris Volstad is arbitration eligible, and I hope beyond all hope we don't give this guy a penny.
Bullpen: I'd like to keep Jeff Russell as our 7th inning guy and blow up the rest of the bullpen.
Off-season Hopes: If we open 2013 with the same batters, plus or minus a few bench guys, I'd be happy. I'm happy, because that meant we focused our off-season on pitching. Two new starters to go behind Samardzija and Garza and ahead of Wood. Two or three new bullpen additions also look good. Give me this team and I have hopes of contending. Maybe we don't make the playoffs just yet, but were up there contending for most of the year. The young guys are improving and learning to win. The front office is now ready to make a big play in the free agent market and sign the biggest pitcher on the market for the 2014 season. They also sign the biggest closer on the market for the 2014 season.
So will the Cubs repeat as a 100 loss team or will they compete?
It depends on the direction they take in the off-season. Soriano's production will be hard to replace if they trade him for minor league talent. Ditto with Garza. These two players will be key to the Cubbies having at least a .500 season. So, for the sake of this post, I'll assume they keep these two.
1st Base: Rizzo is the future of the Cubs at 1st and a future All-Star. With him there and improving, we can win.
2nd Base: Very few are as good as Barney defensively, and if he can improve his batting average to the high .280's, I think we have a winner there too.
3rd Base: Valbuena and Vitters look to platoon if nothing is done here. Hopefully they don't intend on resigning Ian Stewart. 3rd base is definitely looking weak, but if either of those guys can improve a little and hold the fort, we'd have a solid #8 hitter.
SS: Castro's defense will improve, I'm not worried. Other than that, we have a winner here too.
Infield: So, with the exception of third base, we have seen (and I love) the Cubbies of the future. These are all players I could easily see taking the team to the playoffs in the next couple of years. But now if only the rest of the positions looked as good.
OF: Brett Jackson is the only "future of the Cubs" we got a look at this year, and I wasn't impressed. Hopefully with some Major League experience and some winter ball, he'll improve. A lot is riding on this guy. Soriano can be the veteran presence the team needs right now, leading the Cubs by example and providing a fearsome presence in the lineup. I'm still not sold on DeJesus and I'd rather see LaHair get more time in right field.
C: The jury's still out on our catchers and I want to see more of them before I form an opinion, but right now, they look to be solid #6 or #7 hitters.
P: I'm excited about Samardzija. He's our Strasburg or Medlin, but not as good. Hopefully he can get there. I'm a fan of Garza, but I really feel like he's a low #2/high #3 starter at best. Not someone I'd build a rotation around. There's nothing else to be excited about. Travis Wood looks to be a solid #5 starter, but who gets excited about a #5 starter. Chris Volstad is arbitration eligible, and I hope beyond all hope we don't give this guy a penny.
Bullpen: I'd like to keep Jeff Russell as our 7th inning guy and blow up the rest of the bullpen.
Off-season Hopes: If we open 2013 with the same batters, plus or minus a few bench guys, I'd be happy. I'm happy, because that meant we focused our off-season on pitching. Two new starters to go behind Samardzija and Garza and ahead of Wood. Two or three new bullpen additions also look good. Give me this team and I have hopes of contending. Maybe we don't make the playoffs just yet, but were up there contending for most of the year. The young guys are improving and learning to win. The front office is now ready to make a big play in the free agent market and sign the biggest pitcher on the market for the 2014 season. They also sign the biggest closer on the market for the 2014 season.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Soriano Part 2
I previously stated back in July that we shouldn't trade Soriano if it meant absorbing most of his contract. I stated in my last post that I was happy the Cubs didn't trade him at the deadline because we would get more value for him in the offseason.
Right on both accounts.
Only 5 players rank ahead of him in home runs in the NL and only 3 are ahead of him in RBI in the NL. No one who's primary place is as a DH has better numbers.
Yes, I know it's just one season, but it's the whole season. This year Soriano has been less streaky, better defensively, and just overall a much improved player. I'm calling for everyone out there to let the past years go and judge Soriano on how he played for us this year.
But we're rebuilding, right? Like I said in an earlier post, I think having a veteran presence for the "kids" coming up is a good thing. But this leaves a big problem: only one outfield spot for their up-and-coming players. For this reason, I really believe DeJesus has to go. But I don't see that as likely. I think the Cubs will capitalize on Soriano's good season and deal him.
If they do, I'm fine with it, as long as they get good value for him. If we can get at least one highly regarded pitching prospect and not have to absorb ANY of his contract, I'd be fine with that.
It's time MLB teams wake up and stop undervaluing Soriano, stop acting like you'd be doing the Cubs a favor by taking him off our hands. If you want him, and you should, we're doing YOU a favor.
Right on both accounts.
Only 5 players rank ahead of him in home runs in the NL and only 3 are ahead of him in RBI in the NL. No one who's primary place is as a DH has better numbers.
Yes, I know it's just one season, but it's the whole season. This year Soriano has been less streaky, better defensively, and just overall a much improved player. I'm calling for everyone out there to let the past years go and judge Soriano on how he played for us this year.
But we're rebuilding, right? Like I said in an earlier post, I think having a veteran presence for the "kids" coming up is a good thing. But this leaves a big problem: only one outfield spot for their up-and-coming players. For this reason, I really believe DeJesus has to go. But I don't see that as likely. I think the Cubs will capitalize on Soriano's good season and deal him.
If they do, I'm fine with it, as long as they get good value for him. If we can get at least one highly regarded pitching prospect and not have to absorb ANY of his contract, I'd be fine with that.
It's time MLB teams wake up and stop undervaluing Soriano, stop acting like you'd be doing the Cubs a favor by taking him off our hands. If you want him, and you should, we're doing YOU a favor.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Trade Deadline Deals
This year's trade deadline deals brought in five prospects while saying good-bye to four of our starters. The Cubs Minor League Affiliates web page has three of the new prospects ranked in their top 20. They are ranked at #3, #6, and #17.
***Side Note***Recently, I emailed Josh Timmers of bleedcubbieblue.com who was kind enough to write back. He explained to me that the rankings on this sight are not very accurate and outdated (even though they recently added in the new prospects). He gave me his top 10 off the top of his head. He has Vizcaino at #5 (Affiliates sight has him at #3) and Villanueva at #7 (Affiliates sight has him at #6). I trust these rankings a lot more because they include Soler and Almora. The inclusion of these players pretty much proves that the Cubs Affiliates rankings are indeed outdated.
Back to the trade deadline deals. Were they good and am I happy?
The Good:
Pitchers, pitchers and more pitchers. 4 of 5 new additions were pitchers. Two new pitchers in out top 20 prospects. One new pitcher in our top 5. This is exciting and I'm happy. I'm particularly excited about the return we got from the Braves.
Soriano and Garza: I think we'll get a much better return for these two later, so I'm glad we didn't rush to a deal.
The Bad:
Soto: I know he was seriously uderperforming, but I still don't like the return we got for him.
DeJesus: I would've liked to see him traded, opening up a spot for the youngsters to get some Major League experience.
Overall Happiness:
Very. Including the draft and the signing of Soler, 25% of our top 20 prospects are new additions, making our farm system that much stronger. Going by Timmers' Top 10, and including the same players, 40% of our top 10 are new additions.
***Side Note***Timmers' Top 10 includes three Third Basemen. This should be interesting to watch. Josh Vitters is one of them, but he may no longer be the Third Baseman of the future.
***Side Note***Recently, I emailed Josh Timmers of bleedcubbieblue.com who was kind enough to write back. He explained to me that the rankings on this sight are not very accurate and outdated (even though they recently added in the new prospects). He gave me his top 10 off the top of his head. He has Vizcaino at #5 (Affiliates sight has him at #3) and Villanueva at #7 (Affiliates sight has him at #6). I trust these rankings a lot more because they include Soler and Almora. The inclusion of these players pretty much proves that the Cubs Affiliates rankings are indeed outdated.
Back to the trade deadline deals. Were they good and am I happy?
The Good:
Pitchers, pitchers and more pitchers. 4 of 5 new additions were pitchers. Two new pitchers in out top 20 prospects. One new pitcher in our top 5. This is exciting and I'm happy. I'm particularly excited about the return we got from the Braves.
Soriano and Garza: I think we'll get a much better return for these two later, so I'm glad we didn't rush to a deal.
The Bad:
Soto: I know he was seriously uderperforming, but I still don't like the return we got for him.
DeJesus: I would've liked to see him traded, opening up a spot for the youngsters to get some Major League experience.
Overall Happiness:
Very. Including the draft and the signing of Soler, 25% of our top 20 prospects are new additions, making our farm system that much stronger. Going by Timmers' Top 10, and including the same players, 40% of our top 10 are new additions.
***Side Note***Timmers' Top 10 includes three Third Basemen. This should be interesting to watch. Josh Vitters is one of them, but he may no longer be the Third Baseman of the future.
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